Is it a small bet?

Say you want to start something new. Something that you are curious about. Something that can likely fund itself.

You start with the excitement of finding the idea. Those first few days are blissful. You don't know yet what this might become. But you love the prospect of thinking about it.

Then you start talking to people about it. You start asking questions from those who may use it. You try to get them on board not as early customers but as design partners.

The more you talk to people, the more you see how big this idea is. The more convinced you are that it will be profitable - more than the ideas that have come before this. But you won't know for sure until you get people to pay for your version 1.

So you start building. You spend the next eight months building in stealth mode. By the ninth month, you bring forth the business. It's a bundle of joy for you. But the market has moved on.

An alternate path is that you don't go with the first idea that comes to mind. You test all ideas using some simple questions. Then select whichever passes your test.

Does this idea have some small wins within it?

Is it in a winner-takes-all market?

Will it need a lot of time and resources to bring it to market?

Can I build and market this on my own? What will I need from others?

If this fails, will I have the strength to test another idea? Or will it break me?

Does it have a chance of being profitable?

How long will I need to sow before reaping a harvest? Can I wait that long?

Are people comfortable paying for this kind of thing? Or do they expect it to be free?

What's the cost of keeping the lights on?

What's the cost of walking away after it works?

PS: You can check out this well-designed and useful small bets orchard created by Pooria.